Envisioning a wireless future

Recently, Qualcomm marked its 20-year anniversary by recounting what wireless communications looked like in 1985, and celebrating where they've arrived today. (...) Considering where mobile communications was then and what it looks like today, what might our wireless future look like 20 years hence? Here's my scenario:

Dave Mock | Envisioning a wireless future | CNET News.com | August 10, 2005, 4:00 AM PT

When taken in small doses, technical evolution seems fluid and almost natural. But considering the advances in technology over the course of decades reveals a much more radical transformation of the way we live, communicate and entertain.

Just the way we communicate with one another has undergone a dramatic shift. Everything from public manners to safety is being challenged by anywhere, anytime communication.

Recently, Qualcomm marked its 20-year anniversary by recounting what wireless communications looked like in 1985, and celebrating where they've arrived today. Back then, mobile communication was, at worst, 30 pounds of equipment in a car trunk, or at best, a heavy briefcase phone. Today, communications happen through a small yet still gangly looking earpiece.

Considering where mobile communications was then and what it looks like today, what might our wireless future look like 20 years hence? Here's my scenario:

No wires, no hands

The young generation already finds it hard to believe that their elders used to talk on a phone tied to a wall? The next generation will be equally incredulous that we once had to stick something up to our heads to talk.

The common prophecy to this end is implantation. Many visionaries have put forth the notion of embedded intelligence, where simple thought is all that is necessary to telepath "mental speech" wirelessly to another individual anywhere in the world.

But I don't see the risks and concerns associated with implantation as even necessary, given that very tiny devices can be lodged in clothing, jewelry or even behind an ear. Those tiny displays on our mobile will be expanded and morphed with our regular vision, possibly via transparent LCD displays built into glasses or even contact lens-like screens. Augmented reality will be a radical shift for society to deal with. Imagine getting hacked or stung by a virus in this medium--it means more than just corrupted information; an alternate reality could invade your world.

One with nature

I'm guessing we'll finally understand that personal wireless communication needs to be implemented via point-to-point technology--not broadcast. We've been living in a broadcast world from day one, when the very first signals were sent sans wires.

When you look at the nature of wireless signals, they naturally lend themselves to broadcasting--spewing energy omnidirectionally for anyone in range to detect and consume. To utilize broadcast signals for secure, personal communications between two parties is inconsistent with the uncontrolled nature of electromagnetic radiation.

Smart antennae are moving us in the right direction, where electromagnetic waves are focused on mobile devices as they move. Yet even this sophistication is still not standard. I see radical advances in spatial processing happening to dramatically improve the capacity, security and quality of personal wireless communications.

Unfettered access, immediate authentication

It still takes time to access some audio and visual information or entertainment. But future wireless technology will ensure everything is accessible immediately upon payment for service or transmission of identity.

It will speed your way into work, VIP parking areas or any other areas restricted on the basis of identity. Hopefully, it will also do something to improve long lines at government offices and the airport, though I'm not holding my breath.

What's clear about the future 20 years down the road is how integrated into our lives wireless technology will have become. The result will be nearly unbounded connectivity. But the promise of omnipresent wireless communication presents us with an unexpected dilemma. On the one hand, we can look forward to instantaneous access to what we want. Couple that with new challenges to our social norms as well as our traditional expectations of privacy.
(...)


biography
Dave Mock is vice president of Instream Partners. He's also the author of "Tapping into Wireless" and "The Qualcomm Equation."

+ Source here

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Related:

+ Dave Mock | The Qualcomm Equation: How a Fledgling Telecom Company Forged a New Path to Big Profits and Market (2005) | Amazon.com review here

Excerpt from Chapter One:

Entire industries can start from a simple idea- a drawing scribbled on a napkin, or a hobby that sometimes grows into a full time endeavour (...)
The story of how Qualcomm found its niche in advanced communications starts with the origins of what is called spread speactrum technology(...)
What Lamarr and Antheil gave the U.S. military and the world was the concept of frequency hopping, which broke the conventional mold of communication over a single frequency (...)



+ Michael J. Marcus, Sc.D., FIEEE | Thoughts on Basic Issues of Spectrum Policy |
May 24, 2005

A Think Piece written for the Cybersalon/Open Spectrum UK "Wireless Utopias 05" event at the Science Museum, London, 26 May 2005: see here

Excerpt:

The European spectrum managers and ETSI developed HIPERLAN as a short range link for Europe in the early 1990s and attempted to mandate it as the only option. However, a very different regulatory scheme in the US created 3 unlicensed bands in 1985 with almost no government interventions on the details of their use. The private sector, in this case IEEE 802.11, took this broad spectrum policy and developed specific products that were not mandated by any government regulation. Which is more common today, HIPERLAN or Wi-Fi?

Why is Qualcomm, the developer of the CDMA cellular technology which is at the core of all 3G systems, an American company, not Japanese or European? Japan and Europe depended on consensus development of technical standards for both 1st and 2nd generation cellular systems. The US used this approach for 1st generation also, resulting in the AMPS/TACS system. However, the convergence of the 1981-85 FCC rulemaking to explore civil applications of spread spectrum/CDMA and the 1987 FCC decision to stay neutral on 2nd generation technology allowed Qualcomm to raise the capital to develop CDMA, develop it, and find willing customers. Basically CDMA was too radical an idea in the 1980s to have ever resulted from a European or Japanese style consensus standards development.